We were seeing a new wave of companies ramping up to release in the fall as with previous years.  This was just one of many signs that we felt the US economy was turning around.  Money was flowing, new projects were getting some funding, and development teams were being staffed.

As usual, most companies targeted October listing a window of opportunity as the driving factor.  I first referred to this phenomenon in my post about the 2-month launch.

We have had many customers successfully hit October.  One company launched and closed an impressive round of funding shortly thereafter.  Another signed up a Fortune 500 company before the end of the year.  We are very proud of what these budding enterprises achieved.  What’s the one thing that has not happened?

Not a single one has seen any validation that a window of opportunity really existed.

Opportunity?  Yes, definitely.  A window?  One that might close soon?  In my opinion, absolutely not.  The opportunity available to these companies is no better or worse before or after their launch.  The proverbial window remains open for everyone even to this day.

Defining a market window is like trying to predict when the recession you are in began.  Was the Internet search market opened by the invention of the Web or the rise of Yahoo?  If Google closed that window, how do you explain bing? The iPod entered a crowded MP3 market.  facebook is clobbering myspace who left friendster in the dust.  The list goes on and on.

I was reading an essay by William Gates Sr. about his son Bill.  He said Bill left Harvard before graduating to create software for the Altair 8088 because, and I quote, “to take advantage of a window of opportunity he believed would be long gone by the time he graduated”.  This is like seeing a Model T and thinking if you don’t get into the car business soon you’ll miss out.  Laughable now, but I am sure those early companies felt this way just as Gates did and most start-ups do.

I am not saying that windows of opportunity are a complete myth.  Did everyone think Twitter would become this huge or that there was a market for really short messages?  One of our start-ups truly has a unique opportunity.  They can point to market factors, new legislation and a host of other factors converging on what truly looks like a new opportunity.

Hitting a specific window of opportunity is not the dominant factor that determines who survives in my opinion.  New opportunities open up all the time.  Eventually markets become crowded and finding success becomes more difficult.  Companies need to focus more on obtaining an impenetrable position instead of nailing the start or end of a window.

What do I conclude from all of this?

1) Running a start-up successfully is a marathon not a sprint.  Having the early lead in a marathon doesn’t matter that much. Just ask Yahoo or friendster.  You still could easily lose to runners managing their race better if you don’t do the same.

2) Windows of opportunity are very real, yet they don’t exist just because you want to launch in October.  Base your launch time on smart planning and not only on hoping to capture the big spending months before the holidays.

3) If the TechCrunch post about you lists competitors already up and running, then your product is probably not going to create a new window.  Your first mover advantage is already gone.  Learn as much as you can from your competitors.  Most importantly, don’t assume they are standing still.

Here are some different launch goals to consider along with the date of your launch:

Considering launching off-season.  This allows you to fine tune your offering and your infrastructure.  When you expect your most explosive growth, would you rather have a new product that you are still vetting or a proven solution supported by well-trained people?  Maybe ask potential customers this question?

Consider launching based on milestones instead of dates.  For example, launch after you have 500 active beta customers on the system for 2 months or more. Do you think potential investors will care about October if you can show your product is “sticky” for users?  Maybe ask potential investors this question?

Consider launching based on your financial goals.  Your product must be in the market generating revenue at a certain rate to hit your break even target.  Managing to cash flow positive is something many companies may have to do in this changed economy if you believe our predictions back in 2009. Maybe ask your executive staff this question?

I realize that windows of opportunity are one of the many motivators that drive teams to achieve the insane.  Gates may have been wrong about the market for Altair software, but his drive on that opportunity and all the ones that followed ultimately lead to his success.   Believe me, whatever the reason, you must have this drive.  Just remember that while October may seem important, surviving long beyond October is definitely important.

1980 was a very interesting year. pfs:file was launched which was the first flat file database for people. Before then, most databases had been huge systems that only data specialists interacted with. The product was created by Software Published Corporation, which is a company I worked at in 1988.

There were other notable events that happened that year. Read the post and you’ll see tons of computer lore about early role playing games, people connections that lead to early behemoths of industry, and many new product launches. But do you know what else happened in 1980?

November 6 – Microsoft and IBM sign a formal contract for Microsoft to develop certain software products for IBM’s new microcomputer. Microsoft will receive US$200,000 to adapt the operating system to the IBM PC, and US$500,000 for DOS, BASIC, and compilers.

You can find many books, articles and posts about how Gates and company licensed an operating system they in turn sold to IBM. Their lock on MS-DOS and IBM was the key turning point that morphed a leading software company into one of the top companies in the world. That was 29 years ago and the rest is history (pun fully intended).

In honor of this unexpected find related to a book I hope to finish someday, I thought I would list my top events in computer history. And to make it challenging, I am going to limit it to 5 and only 5. I challenge you to come up with your own 5! Please put your lists in the comments. Here’s my list:

- Netscape goes IPO and starts the hype based cycle which ironically may be ending right now as we speak. This has to be the top event as it launched basically everything we do now

- Jobs and Woz launch the Mac in 1984. Here’s that famous commercial. The Mac opened our eyes to the idea of modern computing using intuitive interfaces.

- Gates, Ballmer and company at Microsoft license DOS and enter in agreement with IBM. Clearly, Microsoft was the most influential software company before the Internet and remains near the top today along side Google and a few others. Maybe that will be another list some day.

- James Gosling and the folks at Sun create Java. The Internet explodes on the back of the development community.

Limiting this to just 5 is really rough. If I had to pick, my 5th is the following:

- Claude Shannon publishes “A Mathematical Theory of Communication” in 1948, which defines how to reliably communicate information over an electronic wire.

Even I can’t meet my own challenge. Here are 3 honorable mentions:

- Launch of the iPod by Apple turns the MP3 fad into a must have device.

- MySpace allows everyone to be on the Web.

- Palm Pilot launched in 1996 and PDA’s entered the mainstream.  I am guessing a few of you would debate this one, and perhaps I am influenced by working on Pocket Quicken for Intuit at about this time.

I have to stop now before I spend as much time on this as I have thinking about my top 25 things people don’t know about me on facebook. Enjoy!  And try it!

I met Bill a very long time ago. I was extremely lucky to have been a college intern at Microsoft working on Excel 2.0. When I graduated from college, I had two job offers; one from Microsoft in their tools group and the other from Software Publishing Corporation working on Harvard Graphics. If you looked at my LinkedIn Profile, you’ll see that I opted to stay in the bay area.

I went to an intern party at Bill’s house, before his complex had been built. I met many of the founders of MS. I heard Charles Simoni talk that summer about how programmers lose their touch over time. He said when he was younger he could remember every item in every room in a house of 30 rooms.

I even have a button some where that has “Save the blibbet!” on it. The blibbet was the first MS logo (sort of like the AT&T globe) and the button was part of a protest against changing it. At one point, I worked in a fish bowl office of interns with a bird’s eye view of Bill’s office over looking the courtyard.

I have no regrets on my decision to go to SPC. I like more variety in my life and would never have fully bought into the Microsoft way of life.

Sometime later, I ran into Bill Gates a second time at the Intuit merger company meeting. Bill Gates, Scott Cook and Bill Campbell were on the podium. Bill G and Scott were really into the merger. Bill C seemed very hesitant. I, of course, had the (nerve or stupidity, you pick) to ask about how Intuit customers would feel about getting help from MS as a company given that Intuit had built a reputation of being the Mr. Rogers of technical support.

Scott answered with something about how you can’t become a 100 million customer company by being a scum bag. To which I stupidly replied, “I didn’t say he was a scum bag.” The audience roared at this as they thought I had “implied” the scum bag part. I apologized personally to Bill Gates afterwards and he said it was no big deal. Bill Campbell told me it was a great question. And I spent the rest of the party joking that I had become a legend and unemployed at the same time.

I actually have a video of this somewhere in the house, probably next to my save the blibbet button.

What I can tell you is that Bill Gates programmed BASIC on an airplane for the first home made computer, before there were personal computers, Windows and the Internet, and at a time when most of us were impressed with the convenience of calculators. He had vision, acumen and drive that to me, is unparalleled in the computer industry. I respect those qualities and all that he has achieved so far. The man deserves a statue in the front of the computer hall of fame right next to Woz and Jobs and the rest of the early wizards.