An Honest Discussion About Windows of Opportunity

I originally wrote this post in May of 2009.  We couldn’t post it then and risk revealing the launch plans of some of our clients.  Our end of year projects helped validate the post so we decided to publish it now.

We were seeing a new wave of companies ramping up to release in the fall as with previous years.  This was just one of many signs that we felt the US economy was turning around.  Money was flowing, new projects were getting some funding, and development teams were being staffed.

As usual, most companies targeted October listing a window of opportunity as the driving factor.  I first referred to this phenomenon in my post about the 2-month launch.

We have had many customers successfully hit October.  One company launched and closed an impressive round of funding shortly thereafter.  Another signed up a Fortune 500 company before the end of the year.  We are very proud of what these budding enterprises achieved.  What’s the one thing that has not happened?

Not a single one has seen any validation that a window of opportunity really existed.

Opportunity?  Yes, definitely.  A window?  One that might close soon?  In my opinion, absolutely not.  The opportunity available to these companies is no better or worse before or after their launch.  The proverbial window remains open for everyone even to this day.

Defining a market window is like trying to predict when the recession you are in began.  Was the Internet search market opened by the invention of the Web or the rise of Yahoo?  If Google closed that window, how do you explain bing? The iPod entered a crowded MP3 market.  facebook is clobbering myspace who left friendster in the dust.  The list goes on and on.

I was reading an essay by William Gates Sr. about his son Bill.  He said Bill left Harvard before graduating to create software for the Altair 8088 because, and I quote, “to take advantage of a window of opportunity he believed would be long gone by the time he graduated”.  This is like seeing a Model T and thinking if you don’t get into the car business soon you’ll miss out.  Laughable now, but I am sure those early companies felt this way just as Gates did and most start-ups do.

I am not saying that windows of opportunity are a complete myth.  Did everyone think Twitter would become this huge or that there was a market for really short messages?  One of our start-ups truly has a unique opportunity.  They can point to market factors, new legislation and a host of other factors converging on what truly looks like a new opportunity.

Hitting a specific window of opportunity is not the dominant factor that determines who survives in my opinion.  New opportunities open up all the time.  Eventually markets become crowded and finding success becomes more difficult.  Companies need to focus more on obtaining an impenetrable position instead of nailing the start or end of a window.

What do I conclude from all of this?

1) Running a start-up successfully is a marathon not a sprint.  Having the early lead in a marathon doesn’t matter that much. Just ask Yahoo or friendster.  You still could easily lose to runners managing their race better if you don’t do the same.

2) Windows of opportunity are very real, yet they don’t exist just because you want to launch in October.  Base your launch time on smart planning and not only on hoping to capture the big spending months before the holidays.

3) If the TechCrunch post about you lists competitors already up and running, then your product is probably not going to create a new window.  Your first mover advantage is already gone.  Learn as much as you can from your competitors.  Most importantly, don’t assume they are standing still.

Here are some different launch goals to consider along with the date of your launch:

Considering launching off-season.  This allows you to fine tune your offering and your infrastructure.  When you expect your most explosive growth, would you rather have a new product that you are still vetting or a proven solution supported by well-trained people?  Maybe ask potential customers this question?

Consider launching based on milestones instead of dates.  For example, launch after you have 500 active beta customers on the system for 2 months or more. Do you think potential investors will care about October if you can show your product is “sticky” for users?  Maybe ask potential investors this question?

Consider launching based on your financial goals.  Your product must be in the market generating revenue at a certain rate to hit your break even target.  Managing to cash flow positive is something many companies may have to do in this changed economy if you believe our predictions back in 2009. Maybe ask your executive staff this question?

I realize that windows of opportunity are one of the many motivators that drive teams to achieve the insane.  Gates may have been wrong about the market for Altair software, but his drive on that opportunity and all the ones that followed ultimately lead to his success.   Believe me, whatever the reason, you must have this drive.  Just remember that while October may seem important, surviving long beyond October is definitely important.